Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered nuclear forces on alert Sunday, adding a complicated and concerning dimension to the widening conflict in Ukraine.
Russia has nearly 6,000 warheads, slightly more than the United States’ approximately 5,400, according to the Federation of American Scientists. How dangerous, it’s hard to assess,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. U.S. officials have refused to say whether the Pentagon’s posture has changed in response to Putin’s announcement.
Russian president has ordered nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. We look at what that means.
It was, in the first instance, simple intimidation – “we can hurt you, and fighting us is dangerous” – and a reminder to the west, which is increasingly arming the Ukrainians, not to go too far. The move was, he said, designed to scare the west and “remind the world he’s got a deterrent” and that it was a distraction designed to ensure that the west was “talking about it rather than the lack of success they are having in Ukraine”. Although the diplomatic threat was clear enough, the exact phrasing confused nuclear experts and defence ministries, who did not recognise what a “special mode of combat duty” might specifically entail.
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In an extreme case, White says this could stretch to a false-flag operation, such as the detonation of a small nuclear bomb outside Ukraine’s border, which is blamed on NATO. Bury puts the odds of a nuclear detonation as a result of this crisis at 20 per cent, but points out that it need not lead to all-out nuclear war. “In terms of military action, I think what we’ve seen so far is fairly limited. Nuclear weapons are also a possibility, but only as a last resort, says Galbreath. He and fellow academics and analysts assumed that the country would have been at level 2 of Russia’s four-level system already, given the situation in Ukraine. Nuclear conflict is a distinct but remote possibility as global tensions are ratcheted up by Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine, warn analysts.
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“It’s difficult for the west to create a de-escalation pathway,” Acton said. “Things have not been rational in the Kremlin recently, and so it’s not a good sign,” he said. Putin’s order could involve “connecting the wires, so a launch order can go through if issued”.
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"We have seen no indications that Belarusian troops are being readied to move into Ukraine, and certainly no indications that they are in fact, moving or are in Ukraine," the official said. "It's not a doctrinal term, and the way he characterized it, a 'special combat duty alert' ... it's not a term of art in what we understand to be Russian doctrine," the official said. A senior Pentagon official said there had been no palpable change in the stance of Russia's powerful nuclear arsenal, but called Putin's order "unnecessary and very escalatory."
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He said on Twitter: “The basic idea here is clearly to scare ‘the West’ into backing down. He assured the public: “Britain is a nuclear power, we have a deterrent. It would also signal once and for all his willingness to do whatever it takes to achieve his political and strategic goals.” This is yet more evidence that years of isolation, in which his only contact is with sycophants and security guards, have taken its toll on his mental state,” he wrote in The Atlantic. Francesca Giovannini, executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs, said she still thought Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine was improbable. “The risks of nuclear escalation from Russia’s invasion are real and should be taken seriously. “So this is unusual. However, while he may well be trying to distract from his failures in Ukraine, that does not necessarily mean we are safer. Strategic nuclear weapons are those with which most of us are probably more familiar: weapons to be used on targets far away and which can wreak horrific destruction across enormous areas. Though often smaller than strategic nuclear weapons, they can still wreak enormous destruction and would be more likely to be used inside Ukraine than strategic weapons. It is also the first time strategic nuclear weapons have been readied since the Yom Kippur war in 1973. He suggested that Mr Putin’s actions were designed to intimidate.
The threat is a reminder that Russia must still be feared, despite failures in Ukraine, writes Patrick Cockburn.
The level of destruction in Raqqa, the Isis de facto capital in Syria, was even worse and for the same reason. The list of calamities that have already hit Russia, or may do so soon, leave Putin with only one policy option – which is to try to win a military victory in Ukraine so his invasion will not be seen as a complete disaster. He had sought to take advantage of Western disunity in their relationship with Moscow, but now he has compelled Germany and France to take the same tough line towards Russia as the US and Britain. He said he wanted to prevent the spread of Nato eastwards, but he has ensured that Ukraine will in future be welded politically and militarily into Nato and the EU as they supply weapons and money. He adds that members of the Russian foreign ministry were “very surprised, shocked, even dismayed” by the decision, which they probably saw as the start of an unwinnable war. The invasion may only have happened last Thursday, but Russia is already weaker in the eyes of the world because it has not achieved its objectives.
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And we want to do as much as we can to protect the impact on our own economy,” Thomas-Greenfield said. Trump, who often praised Putin while he was in the White House, finally condemned the invasion during a speech on Saturday night, but also continued to praise the Russian leader. But the sanctions have not yet targeted oil and gas exports, which reportedly accounted for 36% of Russia’s annual budget last year. Analysts told the Guardian that while the order itself was not immediately clear, it was not indicative of preparation for a first strike. We have the ability to defend ourselves, but we also need to call out what we’re seeing here from President Putin.” The White House also faced growing calls from senior Republicans to target Russia’s energy sector with new sanctions.
Experts weigh in after President Putin put nuclear forces on high alert in dramatic escalation of East-West tensions.
“If we were to apply the doctrine [of the joint statement] there’d be a massive effort at disarmament. The Russian leader “is something of a gambler and a risk-taker,” said Cohen. “What he’s trying to do is muscle us all psychologically.” What’s more, Russia joined the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council in January in signing a document affirming that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”. “You are beginning to see the weaknesses on the battlefield … The fact that they haven’t been able to occupy a city and hold on to it, that tells you something.” Just as in NATO, a portion of Russian nuclear weapons are in constant readiness and “can be launched within 10 minutes”, said Marc Finaud, a nuclear proliferation expert at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. Western powers including the United States and NATO protested sharply after Putin said in a televised address that the country’s nuclear “deterrence forces” were placed “into a special mode of combat service”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his nuclear forces on high alert Sunday, reminding the world he has the power to use weapons of mass destruction, ...