Oil price

2022 - 3 - 7

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How important is Russian oil and how high could prices go? (The Guardian)

A prolonged war could take prices above the all-time high, adding to inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.

The [UK] government should also keep its foot on the renewables accelerator – and continue to expand investment in low-cost sources of electricity such as solar and wind.” The UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said a prolonged war could take the price above that record, to $150 or more. The US exported 3.45m bpd in December last year and could increase that. “A disruption on such a massive scale cannot be met by other producers, at least not for the foreseeable future,” said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank. The UK is less dependent, importing 4.7m tonnes of Russian oil in 2021, just under 100,000 bpd, which was less than 10% of consumption. As warmer days arrive and the immediate need for gas diminishes, it should be remembered that the picture is not all that different for crude oil and other petroleum products.

Goldman hikes crude price forecast, Barclays and Rystad warn of ... (Reuters)

Goldman Sachs hiked its price forecasts for Brent oil saying the world could be facing one of "largest energy supply shocks ever" because of the Ukraine ...

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Has the pandemic made the U.S. less vulnerable to oil price spikes? (Marketplace.org)

Biden's ban on Russian oil may raise already high fuel prices. Though recessions followed past runups, this time may be different.

“There certainly is a cohort that will not be as susceptible to price increases at the pump,” Freedman said. Your donation today powers the independent journalism that you rely on. We rely on your financial support to keep making that possible. U.S. households have more than $2 trillion in pandemic savings they can use to weather $4- or $5-a-gallon gas prices. But the U.S. energy infrastructure has changed a lot since then, he said. “There’s a remarkable correlation over history of recessions being preceded by increases in oil price,” said Jeff Frankel, a former economic adviser to Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. AAA reported the average price of a gallon of gasoline was $4.17 Tuesday, the highest on record. “We used to be a net importer of oil, and now we’re roughly in balance. “One of the things that is a positive coming out of the pandemic is some level of savings that people have been able to store up,” Freedman said. Has the pandemic made the U.S. less vulnerable to oil price spikes? Has the pandemic made the U.S. less vulnerable to oil price spikes? Though it seems counterintuitive, the pandemic has made American consumers less vulnerable to a major energy shock, said Eric Freedman at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

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Europe Is Rushing To Overhaul Its Energy Security Strategy (OilPrice.com)

For many decades, Europe has been one of the largest buyers of Russian gas, but following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU is rushing to move away ...

"The only way that we cannot be put under pressure from being Putin's customer is to no longer be his customer for our essential energy resources. Germany will build two LNG import facilities, at Brunsbuettel and Wilhelmshaven, and look to speed up the installation of renewable energy capacity to have 100-percent renewable power generation by 2035. Some EU members are entirely dependent on Russian gas, and reducing that dependence would need a lot of EU and supra-government coordination and solidarity to send (if possible) gas where it's needed. It took a war in Europe for the first time since WWII for the European Union to realize that Russia is not the reliable energy supplier Moscow has always claimed to be, and many officials in Europe have believed. Europe receives some one-third of its natural gas from Russia, but the dependence varies among EU members. By most estimates and forecasts from the European Commission and analysts, Europe can survive next winter without Russian gas.

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Kazakhstan Braces For Economic Fallout From War In Ukraine (OilPrice.com)

The ongoing war in Ukraine is threatening Kazakhstan crude oil exports which account for 14 percent of the country's GDP.

The more so since January 2021 when Ankara hiked its transit fee from $0.55 per barrel to between $1.50-$2.00 per barrel. Once full, flow will have to halt which in turn would force a cut in oil production at Kazakh fields. The Russian section is operated by CPC-R – a company headquartered in Moscow – while the pipeline itself is owned by a consortium in which Russian state firm Transneft holds 24 percent and subsidiaries of sanctioned Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft together hold another 20 percent. With the U.S. and EU discussing a ban on Russian oil imports, buyers are wary of being left with a tanker full of crude they would be unable to deliver. -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32

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Biden Bans Russian Oil Imports, Consumers Bear Price Spikes (Forbes)

Energy prices spiked as the Biden administration moved ahead today with a ban on Russian oil and gas imports in response to the escalating violence in ...

High gas prices are taking place in part because of the crisis in Ukraine, but also because the U.S. is not taking advantage of domestic resources for political reasons. Russia, however, is a party to the nuclear agreement and could try to block it if it does not serve its interests. Overall, the EU relies on Russian oil and refined products to satisfy about 27 percent of its demand. The Biden administration has not yet formally called on domestic producers to hike output. Biden has turned attention to Iran, where a renewed nuclear deal could ease sanctions on Tehran and unleash over 1 million barrels a day of Iranian oil exports. The Russian volumes are not large, and it should not be difficult for U.S. refiners to replace them. Some players are shunning Russian energy deals to express opposition to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Most recently, Shell, Europe's largest oil major, promised to shun Russian oil purchases and said it would conduct no business with Moscow. According to AAA, average U.S. gasoline prices at the pump are now around $4.20 a gallon for the first time since 2008. According to the Energy Information Administration, the United States has recently imported about 400,000 to 500,000 barrels a day of crude and refined products. We are going to see increased gas prices here in the United States. In Europe, they will see dramatic increases in prices. Biden has been working with America’s allies in Europe to negotiate the ban. That’s roughly 8 percent of U.S. oil and petroleum products imports.

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How much oil price pain can consumers take? More than you might ... (The Australian Financial Review)

The war in Ukraine is redrawing the global energy map in ways unthinkable just weeks ago. But consumers and companies may have a buffer to absorb higher ...

In the early 1980s, it got as high as 6 per cent. People start conserving energy and changing their behaviour.” “To be clear, this is not our base case, but such a scenario does not sound implausible today. Brent traded in a $US20 range over the past 24 hours. Two weeks ago, such a notion would have been ludicrous. The question of when high oil prices cure high oil prices – that is, when prices get so high that demand for oil takes a hit, eventually leading to a decline in prices – has been much studied in the last week, with estimates ranging from $US120 a barrel for a prolonged period, to $US150 to $US200 a barrel.

What is next for oil and gas prices? (unknown)

US President Joe Biden's ban on Russian energy imports is latest move to punish Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

“So one is sort of a bit more manageable… that production is essentially unbuyable in many ways, and if you do that in an already very tight market the demand [and prices] are going to go up,” he said. The most immediate effect will be on inflation. “The fear is that if we can’t get oil, where’s it going to come from?.. Because people decide, well, I can’t. It’s too expensive to drive. For Russia, this represented 3 percent of its total exports.

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IEA Ready To Release Additional Oil From Reserves As Prices Surge (OilPrice.com)

The members of the International Energy Agency are ready to release more oil from their strategic emergency reserves to tame the surging oil prices.

Meanwhile, traders and buyers in Europe shunned Russia’s crude, eyeing a potential ban on imports of energy commodities from Russia, and Russia is threatening to shut the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany. Last week, the IEA agreed that some of its members would release 60 million barrels of crude oil from various countries’ strategic petroleum reserves. The United States has agreed to release 30 million barrels of crude oil from its SPR. The rest of the IEA members in Europe and Asia will release the remaining 30 million barrels.

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Oil Prices Jump As Biden Announces Full Ban On Russian Energy ... (OilPrice.com)

Oil prices are rising on Tuesday morning after U.S. President Biden announced that his country will enforce a full ban on the imports of Russian energy.

Europe is much more dependent on Russian oil than the United States. Related: U.S. Shale Cannot Offset Loss Of Russian Crude In The Short Term That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable at U.S. ports and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin’s war machine,” President Biden said in a White House announcement on Tuesday.

Oil prices rise with Biden poised to halt imports from Russia. (unknown)

Oil and gas prices surged again on Tuesday as Western lawmakers advanced efforts to isolate Russia by taking steps to cut it off from global oil markets.

Gas prices have followed crude oil higher, hitting a national average of $4.17 a gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA, a new high for regular unleaded gas. And the European Commission — the executive arm of the European Union, which is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas — outlined a proposal to make itself independent of that supply in the coming years. On Tuesday, the London Metal Exchange suspended trading in its market for nickel, another big Russian export and a key component in batteries for electric vehicles and stainless steel, after the three-month price briefly soared above $100,000 per metric ton, more than double the previous day’s price. The Fed has signaled that the conflict is unlikely to deter it from raising interest rates this month. In the United States, President Biden announced a ban on the importation of Russian oil and natural gas, a move that could increase gasoline prices that have already climbed to record highs. Though Western governments announced a number of severe penalties on Russia immediately after the invasion, oil trading was not included in those measures.

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FTSE 100 Live: Oil price highest since 2008, shares slide continues (Evening Standard)

Oil prices have hit their highest level since 2008 after the US signalled plans for a ban on Russian exports.

Wizz Air said it was extending a temporary pause into a full cancellation of services to and from the countries. Shipping broker Clarkson was in demand after record results included underlying profits of £69.4 million and an increase in its dividend for a 19th consecutive year. EN+ said Lord Barker, who was the UK’s energy minister from 2010 until 2014, had resigned and would leave following a “short” handover period. The announcement came following a call between the prime minister and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, held yesterday. Earlier, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said he was in talks with European leaders over the ban. The decision comes as the FCA acknowledged that the supply of high cost credit products had reduced following events such as Provident Financial, Britain’s biggest doorstep lender, withdrawing from home credit. It follows a decision by the company to pause flights to Ukraine and Russia on Wednesday after the closure of airspace. The threat of a possible ban on Russian oil imports sent the price of Brent Crude to its highest price since 2008 this morning and natural gas jumped to an all-time high. Wizz Air has slashed its growth target after stopping the sale of flights to and from Russia and Ukraine as war between the two countries rages. The pound dropped to 1.315 against the US dollar in early trading this morning, the lowest the currency has reached in post-Brexit Britain, as investors moved into the US dollar amid fears of a worsening crisis in Ukraine. The Euro has dropped 2.9% in the past week, as concern grows over mounting energy costs and knock-on effects to the European economy of sanctions on Russia. It told The Times it was talking to firms and individuals about the supply of credit to customers of the high-interest loan market.

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Oil rallies as US and UK announce bans on Russian oil imports ... (The Guardian)

It's official, the UK is to phase out the import of Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022. Kwasi Kwarteng, secretary of state for business, ...

The US ban on Russian energy imports is the toughest economic sanction yet on Moscow given how reliant the country is on oil and gas revenues. Comments from the chief executive of Saudi Aramco that the Ukraine conflict is making the energy crisis even worse has done little to calm nerves. We will not invest any further capital into the country nor will we profit from our presence in Russia. We will continue to supply our everyday essential food and hygiene products made in Russia to people in the country. The move has pushed a barrel of Brent crude up to over $132 a barrel, and prices are set to march higher given speculation is now rife that more governments, including the UK, will also begin imposing boycotts of Russian energy imports. Will it stimulate new exploration for those much prized and incredibly lucrative oil and gas supplies or will it speed up the transition to cleaner, greener fuel sources. We have also committed to donate €5m of essential Unilever products to the humanitarian relief effort. In other words, in the absence of formal EU sanctions, it’s up to European governments to tell Shell, and by implication, all oil majors how quickly to disentangle. The US has gone even further saying coal and gas imports are also off the table, “a powerful blow” to President Putin’s leadership said the US President and one which is already having global ramifications. The price of oil has been heading higher all day as markets waited for the news to come through when it did it just added to the volatility Wall Street had already been experiencing. The UK imports 8% of its oil from Russia. Kwarteng said he would be establishing a “taskforce for oil” to help companies find alternative suppliers. And an apology from chief executive Ben van Beurden was obviously necessary: the company’s huge Rotterdam refinery may have been running low on supplies, but the obligation was to pay through the nose to secure alternative barrels from west Africa or somewhere. And with other metal prices also at record levels, the cost of vehicles could rise.

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Image courtesy of "Financial Times"

IEA ready to release more oil to ease soaring energy prices, says chief (Financial Times)

Fatih Birol says co-ordinated release of 60mn barrels last week was only an 'initial response'

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Markets rattled by push for Russian oil ban in reaction to Ukraine war (Financial Times)

Oil and natural gas prices see-sawed as global stocks fell on Monday after a US push to ban Russian crude faced German resistance, leaving markets rattled ...

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U.S. Shale Cannot Offset Loss Of Russian Crude In The Short Term (OilPrice.com)

Despite its flexibility to respond to soaring oil prices, the U.S. shale patch cannot come to the rescue of the increasingly tightening global oil market ...

Scott Sheffield, chief executive at Pioneer Natural Resources, the biggest oil producer in the Permian, says U.S. producers will not be able to replace Russian oil this year. U.S. lawmakers passed legislation on Monday to ban the import of energy products from Russia, but it is not clear yet whether President Joe Biden would sign it into law. - Canada Says Its Oil Could Replace U.S. Imports Of Russian Crude In the event of a Russian embargo—which Sheffield supports—oil could jump to $150 and even $200 per barrel, the executive said in an interview with the Financial Times last week. A lack of equipment is the key reason why the U.S. shale patch cannot replace the loss of Russian crude, Andlauer added. Despite its flexibility to respond to soaring oil prices, the U.S. shale patch cannot come to the rescue of the increasingly tightening global oil market with some Russian crude not making its way to buyers, commodity intelligence firm Kpler said on Tuesday.

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China Scrambles To Ensure Energy Security As Commodities Soar (OilPrice.com)

China plans to increase its crude oil, natural gas, and coal production, boost reserves of energy commodities, and keep stable imports to ensure its energy ...

This weekend, NDRC's Lian said that the Chinese government would not ration power and natural gas usage unless in extreme situations. Last month, China said it would help run its coal-fired power plants at full capacity in a bid to ensure energy security, despite the climate goals of the world's largest polluter. As long as all parties comply with the contracts, imports can remain generally stable," South China Morning Post reported.

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Oil prices: Will plane fares be affected and are surcharges coming ... (The Independent)

Fuel is one of the key costs of travel: for aviation, the ferry and cruise industries, and for ground-based operators. Some firms are partially protected by “ ...

They are expected to pay not just government taxes such as Air Passenger Duty, and airport fees, but also these “carrier imposed surcharges”. Currently on British Airways that amounts to £105 for a one-way flight to the US. The name and scale of the charge has no particular significance: airlines are required to quote fares inclusive of fees, taxes and surcharges. Rob Burgess, editor of the frequent-flyer website Head for Points, says: “The laws of supply and demand don’t change just because fuel prices go up. Yes. In 2006, British Airways took the “very regrettable” step of increasing its fuel surcharge. The Independent is unaware of any such levies. The Package Travel Regulations 2018 say the price can be increased at the latest at least 20 days before the start of the trip. The company in question has been asked to supply evidence. Not if the organiser can demonstrate that their costs have risen. The contract must state expressly that such an increase may be made (most firms’ terms and conditions make this part of the contract). And the rise can be only for these specified reasons. Some firms are partially protected by “hedging” arrangements – an agreement to buy a certain amount of fuel their fuel needs at a specific price. They are now seeing the cost of providing their promised service rise significantly higher than before. No. You will not turn up at Heathrow or Manchester and find you are asked for more cash.

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German chancellor Scholz pushes back against Russian energy ... (The Guardian)

The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has pushed back against calls to ban Russian oil and gas imports, as part of western sanctions against Moscow over its ...

While the European Union faces an urgent task of finding alternatives to Russian energy supplies, “this won’t happen overnight,” Scholz said Monday in a statement. In the electricity system, inertia is crucial in maintaining a stable electrical frequency on the grid, keeping the lights on. “Supplying Europe with energy for heat generation, mobility, electricity supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way at the moment. But then there’s a lot that’s happened in the last couple of weeks that looked highly unlikely a month ago and the situation continues to evolve rapidly. Downside risks primarily focus around Ukraine and Russia finding common ground and based on the current demands, that does not look likely any time soon. “I am also determined to ensure that the 120,000 jobs throughout the UK, US and Europe are protected. “Supplying Europe with energy for heat generation, mobility, electricity supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way at the moment. “Some moments demand a choice, this is one,” he said. Conversely, countries not self-sufficient in energy suffer when prices are high because costs for business rise and consumer spending power is squeezed. However, any future potential sanctions on energy are not included. “But clearly there is going to be a transitional period, we are going to have to look for supply, we are going to have to look for substitute supplies from elsewhere and we are going to have to do it together across the entire coalition of countries that is now condemning Putin’s actions.” The European Union is in the grip of a “growing gas crisis” aggravated by its dependency on Russia, Brussels will warn, as it makes a further push for energy savings and a switch to renewable power.

Russia warns oil price will hit $300 if West bans imports (unknown)

Western countries could face oil prices of over $300 per barrel and the possible closure of the main Russia-Germany gas pipeline if governments follow ...

"But European politicians with their statements and accusations against Russia push us towards that." We are ready for it. "If you want to reject energy supplies from Russia, go ahead.

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Where next for the crude oil price? (Fidelity International)

In this article Graham Smith asks if the soaring oil price means a switch to clean energy could come sooner.

Select 50 is not a personal recommendation to buy or sell a fund. The argument has changed from one about underinvestment during the pandemic forcing higher prices to fears of a full-blown supply shock. Even prior to Ukraine, solar PV was being lauded as the cheapest source of electricity in history8. Exposures could be even greater for investors in actively managed funds where the manager has taken a positive position. LAST week $100 oil went in a blink of an eye and with it all notions of a finely balanced energy market for some time to come. Reference to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities and is included for the purposes of illustration only. Managed by an award winning team of infrastructure investment specialists, this fund targets an attractive annual income from its investments of 5%, although this amount is not guaranteed. This information is not a personal recommendation for any particular investment. Excluding Russia, a crude oil price in excess of $150 looks feasible. It remains to be seen what OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) can do. Gigawatts of electricity from clean energy sources including hydropower and wind have just become a whole lot cheaper versus oil. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment you should speak to one of Fidelity’s advisers or an authorised financial adviser of your choice.

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Oil price surges to $140 a barrel - its highest level since 2008 (Daily Mail)

With global markets in turmoil, UK wholesale gas hit 800 pence per therm today - up from 39p a year ago - amid claims that the monthly price cap planned for ...

A group of fighters could be seen trying to help the family. Potential talks on the issue are to be organised in the coming days, he said. The official said Russian forces continue to advance in an attempt to isolate Kyiv, Kharkhiv and Chernihiv, but are being met with strong Ukrainian resistance. The Russian Defence Ministry on Sunday announced that its forces intend to strike Ukraine's military-industrial complex with what it said were precision weapons. The death toll remains unclear. Heavy artillery hit residential areas in Kharkiv and shelling damaged a television tower, according to local officials. 'We have to pull the emergency cord and get all hands on deck to sustain supplies of gas across Europe,' he said. But Russian attacks quickly closed the humanitarian corridor, Ukrainian officials said. But there have been indications for several days that the Government is rethinking its position. 'For those car owners that can, it says it's time to ditch petrol and diesel and switch to electric. The US will also consider upping its own production. This graph shows the index just after 11am

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Oil price rises as US tightens pressure on Moscow (The Times)

The oil price has jumped after United States prepared to announce a formal ban on Russian oil imports in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

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