OBR

2022 - 9 - 30

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Image courtesy of "GOV.UK"

Readout of the Prime Minister and Chancellor's meeting with the OBR (GOV.UK)

This morning (30 September) Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng met with OBR officials, including the Chair Richard Hughes.

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

Treasury minister claims OBR could not have assessed mini-budget ... (The Guardian)

Andrew Griffith contradicts finance watchdog, saying plans too 'chunky' to assess before publication.

“Details of infrastructure plans that have been long held up that we are going to crack through, detail about how we are going to bring forward the new clean energy revolution. “This growth plan is full of detail about how this government is going to grow the economy. “There is a balance. Asked by BBC Breakfast why the OBR was not given the opportunity to make an assessment of the plan, Griffith suggested the level of “detail” in the plan made it impossible for the independent watchdog to assess it before the government published it. [it could have produced an assessment in time](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/sep/29/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-mini-budget-sterling-crisis-economy-conservatives-uk-politics-live-updates) but was not asked to do so by the chancellor. [Office for Budget Responsibility](https://www.theguardian.com/business/office-for-budget-responsibility) (OBR) to have produced an accurate forecast in time.

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Image courtesy of "Financial Times"

Kwarteng faces test persuading UK watchdog of fiscal plans (Financial Times)

Kwarteng and prime minister Liz Truss met officials from the Office for Budget Responsibility on Friday, in an attempt to reassure markets that they are serious ...

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Image courtesy of "ITV News"

Treasury rejects call for early OBR forecast after meeting to discuss ... (ITV News)

The Treasury has said the fiscal forecast will be published on November 23 as planned, despite the OBR saying it would deliver an initial forecast on ...

“And the Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to produce an economic and fiscal forecast which will be published on 23 November. This is what the bond yield is. Mr Blackford called it “utterly damning” that the government failed to commission a forecast from the OBR. In a letter to the Scottish National Party’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford and the party’s shadow chancellor Alison Thewliss, the chair of the OBR confirmed that the body sent “a draft economic and fiscal forecast to the new chancellor on 6 September, his first day in office”. In the meantime, the investor is paid interest on that loan at an agreed rate. A Treasury readout added: "They agreed, as is usual, to work closely together throughout the forecast process and beyond.

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Image courtesy of "Civil Service World"

MPs demand publication of OBR advice to Kwarteng (Civil Service World)

Members of parliament's influential Treasury Select Committee have called on embattled chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng to publish an Office for Budget ...

He said the OBR had confirmed it would be able to produce a full forecast by the end of October and a “meaningful” one beforehand. The past seven days have been hugely volatile for the UK economy. Please could you confirm that you will make public that forecast immediately?” “Given the continued uncertainty within markets, there would be a clear advantage to moving the MTFP statement and the release of the OBR forecast to as early a date as possible,” Stride said. “Some have formed the unfortunate impression that the government may be seeking to avoid scrutiny, possibly on account of expecting the OBR forecast to be unsupportive of the achievement of the economic outcomes the government expects from the Growth Plan,” he said. While the OBR had made preparations to provide forecasts to support the mini-budget, Kwarteng would have had to request the information and he did not.

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Image courtesy of "North Wales Pioneer"

OBR 'scrutiny' valued say Truss and Kwarteng as forecast ... (North Wales Pioneer)

The unusual meeting between Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng and the OBR came amid market turmoil following last week's mini-budget.

They were being finalised in the hours before the Chancellor stood up,” he told Sky News. Just like the independent Bank of England, they have got a really important role to play. In a letter to the Scottish National Party’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford and the party’s shadow chancellor Alison Thewliss, Mr Hughes said the body sent “a draft economic and fiscal forecast to the new Chancellor on September 6, his first day in office”. “They discussed the process for the upcoming economic and fiscal forecast, which will be published on November 23, and the economic and fiscal outlook,” according to the Treasury statement. In a statement published shortly after the meeting, the OBR said it will deliver an initial forecast – which “will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the Government’s policies” – to the Chancellor on October 7. A Treasury read-out following the meeting said a highly-anticipated OBR forecast will be published on November 23, when the Chancellor is due to reveal his medium-term fiscal plan.

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Image courtesy of "Evening Standard"

OBR to deliver forecast in coming weeks after meeting with PM and ... (Evening Standard)

The unusual meeting between Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng and the spending watchdog came amid market turmoil following last week's mini-budget.

“This growth plan is full of detail about how this Government is going to grow the economy. “I will be frank,” he said. Detail about how we are going to bring forward the new clean energy revolution. They were being finalised in the hours before the Chancellor stood up,” he told Sky News. They were being finalised in the hours before the Chancellor stood up Just like the independent Bank of England, they have got a really important role to play.

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

Treasury to delay publishing OBR forecast by six weeks after 7 ... (The Guardian)

The Treasury said that Truss, Kwarteng and the OBR discussed the “economic and fiscal outlook” as well as the process for growth forecasts. However, they said ...

The Greens have kicked off their conference with a call for taxes on wealth and “dirty profits” to finance the transition to renewable energy – while warning Labour’s plans, unveiled last week, are woefully insufficient. The 17-point lead puts Labour on 47%, ahead of the Conservatives on 30%. The Scotland secretary, Alister Jack, said the announcement of tax cuts should not have come as a shock, PA Media reports. Truss has previously suggested universal benefits, such as the state pension, should be scrapped because of the “huge expense” to taxpayers of “recycling” their money through the system – prompting fears she could go further still with her plans to cut back the benefits bill. Just one-in-five support the “mini-budget” from last week which since saw the UK tumbling in the currency and stock markets. Šefčovič said he had a “good conversation” with Cleverly during a call on Friday lunchtime. The Treasury said that Truss, Kwarteng and the OBR discussed the “economic and fiscal outlook” as well as the process for growth forecasts. A Treasury minister has contradicted the UK’s independent watchdog for public finances, saying it would not have been able to produce a forecast in time for the government’s mini-budget. One, by BMG for the i newspaper, gave them a 17-point lead, on 47% to the Tories 30%. Following a meeting with the prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, the Office for Budget Responsibility has confirmed it will deliver an initial forecast on 7 October. The prime minister will be on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg this weekend as the Conservative party conference begins, PA Media reported. Half of the public now believe it is likely Keir Starmer will become prime minister, according to polls, reports PA Media.

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

Why OBR forecast is being held back until Kwarteng's next fiscal plan (The Guardian)

The message the government wanted to get out was clear. After less than a month as prime minister, Liz Truss had converted from vocal scourge of Treasury ...

Before budgets, the OBR provides multiple private forecasts to the Treasury over a period of several weeks. This detail has inevitably stoked criticism of a delay and demands for the forecasts to be made public. The Treasury said it would publish the watchdog’s forecasts for the UK economy and public finances on 23 November, when Kwarteng plans to outline a medium-term fiscal plan. Given the deterioration in the economy since spring, and the scale of the tax cuts, it would have made for grim reading. There was also a clamour for forecasts to be published at the earliest possible moment. Meetings between the Treasury and the OBR are normal.

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