Bank of England

This survey forms part of the Bank's quantitative market intelligence gathering. It is formulated by Bank of England staff, and enhances policymakers' ...

Throughout, the Xth percentile is calculated by ranking the survey responses in ascending order and reporting the response which is ranked in position k where k is (X/100)*(sample size – 1) + 1. 6a) In the key MPC judgements underlying the November 2022 Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projections it was observed that ‘the UK economy is expected to remain in recession throughout 2023 and 2024 H1, and GDP is expected to recover only gradually thereafter’. 5b) What is your central expectation for EURGBP at the following points in the future? 5a) What is your central expectation for GBPUSD at the following points in the future? 3a) Please provide your central expectations for Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation at each of the following time horizons. Reflecting on this and your responses to the questions above, what percentage chance do you attach to an initial rate cut of any size occurring within the next year? Please weight the following factors (%) in order of importance in affecting this decrease in the one-year one-year forward swap rate. 59 respondents answered the question this way.] 1ciii) Focusing on your expectations for the peak level of Bank Rate in this cycle please indicate the percentage chance that you attach to Bank Rate peaking within the following ranges (responses should sum to 100%). 1bii) Please indicate the percentage chance that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the upcoming 2 February 2023 meeting (responses should sum to 100%). For questions that ask respondents to select one option from a given set of possibilities – the respondent count against each option is reported. For most questions, median responses across participants, along with the 25th and 75th percentiles, are reported. [footnote [1]](#footnote-1) For questions that ask respondents to weight different factors or assign probabilities to specific outcomes, the mean weighting is reported.